It is reasonable to assume that crime statistics can and are manipulated to some degree, in order for police departments to appear to be meeting certain goals, such as a reduction in violent crime. There are simple ways of doing this e.g., by classifying a street robbery as a theft/act of larceny, a violent offense can be categorized as a non-violent one etc. This is why criminologists and crime analysts often use homicides as a corroborating indicator to whether crime rates are falling or rising, as it is difficult to reclassify a death as something else. A strange thing happened in the last quarter of 2023. Overall, homicides were significantly down – in some cities to 1960’s levels that preceded the crime “surge” that took place till it peaked in the early 1990’s – however on Sunday 3rd December (2023), two mass shootings (the 37th and 38th incident of the year) turned 2023 into the year with highest number of mass shootings since 2006 (when accurate records of mass shootings began). The two shootings, one in Dallas committed by a 21-year-old (who was meant to be wearing an ankle bracelet to track his movements, due to a previous assault charge) who walked into a house and shot five people, and the other, an apparent murder-suicide which saw five family members die, brought the total number killed in mass shootings to 197 (shooters not included). A further 91 people were wounded in these incidents but survived. Often, such mass shootings (where four or more people are killed, excluding the gunman), fail to make the national headlines unless they occur in public settings, or children are amongst the victims. Most mass shootings don’t adhere to the public perception of “active shooter” incidents because most occur in private settings, such as people’s homes, rather than in restaurants, bars, shopping malls and academic institutions etc. From a risk perspective, we are more likely to be shot in our homes than in places that are open to the public. In this article I want to look at these types of mass shootings, and why in recent years we have seen a rise in them.

There appear to be five primary themes around mass shootings (though several of these, rather than just one may form the motivation(s) for killing). The first is revenge where a resentful and unhappy individual seeks payback from those who they believe have held them back, are responsible for their failures in life/employment/academia, and have stood in the way of them accomplishing the things they were entitled to etc. I have written before about “injustice collectors” who are constantly adding up all the negative things that have happened to them and blaming others for these occurrences. There are those who engage in mass killings to experience and enjoy a sense of power that has been denied them in their ordinary lives. Often the power and revenge motives go together. Another motivation is that of “loyalty”. It is hard to understand why a parent would kill their children out of supposed love, but there are those individuals who engage in murder-suicides because they want to spare those around them from the miseries of daily life and see/have all of their family members meet together in the afterlife, where things will be better. Two more specific motives are “terror” and “profit”. There are those who engage in mass shootings/killing as acts of terrorism, and there are those who do so for profit/financial return e.g., an armed robber kills others to eliminate witnesses as they commit their offense(s). Primarily, the two motivations that account for most of the mass shootings that occur are those of “revenge” and “power”. In both cases this doesn’t mean that revenge and power have to target those individuals who have directly harmed them or caused them injustice etc. They can also take revenge on and enjoy power by targeting individuals who “represent” those they are looking to get even with.

Whilst 2023 goes on record as the highest number of mass shootings since 2006, it would be incorrect to say that this signals that we are on the cusp of an epidemic. There is a great deal of variability, year-on-year, concerning mass shootings. There is nothing to suggest from past figures that 2024 is going to see more mass shootings because of what has happened in the previous year e.g., in 2025, I could be writing an article about why 2024 had the lowest number of shootings etc. It could be that there is a surge in the number of terrorist mass shootings, and a drop in those motivated by revenge etc., due to changes in the political landscape that are unique to that particular period in time. What was experienced in 2023 was a significant increase in those motivated by revenge and power, and in many ways, these are the result of a serious of unique factors affecting a small number of individuals, that may not reflect on societal changes e.g., by “chance” more individuals found that their partners had been cheating on them and were motivated to use lethal force etc. Mass shootings are still statistically “rare” events and to suggest common underlying causes with such a small sample size of incidents would be dangerous.