On July 4th, 2023, there were sixteen mass shootings, resulting in fifteen people being killed, with another 94 injured. The shootings occurred across thirteen states as well as in Washington DC. The Gun Violence Archive’s definition of a mass shooting (this database of mass shootings is managed by North Eastern university professor, James Alan Fox), is an incident where four or more people are killed or injured (excluding the shooter), due to the use of firearms. It should be noted that not all of these events involve what would be described as an “Active Shooter” incident, as many of these incidents were the result of arguments between individuals and groups, rather than the indiscriminate selection of targets which tends to characterize active shooter incidents. The US Homeland Security’s definition of an active shooter incident is one where, active shooters have “no pattern or method for the selection of their targets.” However, it is worth noting that even in active shooter incidents, although specific individuals may not be targeted, specific populations and groups usually are i.e., whether that’s a particular school, a workplace, a religious site etc. Even when there may seem to be little reason to target a particular group, such as country and western music fans attending the Las Vegas, Route 91 Harvest musical festival in 2017, to the shooter – 64-year-old Stephen Paddock – that group represented something and was significant to him in some way. In many ways we should not be surprised that this July 4th (2023), was such a deadly/injurious one, involving gun violence, as historically July 4th and July 5th, are statistically the riskiest days for gun violence in the U.S. Over the past decade there have been 52 mass shootings on the Fourth of July, averaging just over five a year (2023, with sixteen, is going to raise that average noticeably). In this article I am going to examine some of the reasons why July 4th, is America’s deadliest day.

Violence is largely the result of opportunity i.e., Cohen and Felson (1979) state that for a crime to take place, there must be a motivated offender, a suitable target, and the lack of a capable guardian. It is  important to note that their “Routine Activity Theory”, doesn’t imply criminality i.e., an offender may have no history of offending, they simply have to be motivated in that moment. Someone who has been a law-abiding citizen all their life, may in a particular moment become motivated to “offend” against someone who they deem as a “suitable target” e.g., an argument/dispute may see someone becoming motivated to act violently against the individual(s) they perceive to have wronged them. One of the things they must consider in their decision to act violently is their ability to do so. If they are carrying a firearm, when motivated to use violence, then regardless of their physical/athletic ability, they have the ability to act violently. In 1958, the UK government started to restrict the Carbon Monoxide content of the UK gas supply. At the time suicide by Carbon Monoxide poisoning (putting your head in a gas oven and turning the gas on without lighting it), was the most common method that individuals in the UK used, accounting for just under half of all suicides. As carbon monoxide in the gas supply declined (by region) so did suicides at similar rates. Although there was a slight increase in the use of other methods, suicide rates fell dramatically. When the ease of an available and non-painful method of suicide was removed suicide rates went down. When there is little/no control of firearm carry (lack of a capable guardian), such as at a block/street party, then an individual is given the ability to act violently, when motivated; over an argument, a sense of disrespect, and/or some form of frustration etc. July 4th/Independence Day is a celebration that involves partying and bringing large numbers of individuals together. This increases the number of social interactions that can occur, and some of these aren’t going to be positive ones. After July 4th and 5th (the result of parties going past midnight), the 3rd most violent day in the U.S. calendar not surprisingly is January 1st; another day which sees large numbers of people gathering and creating potentially negative social interactions.

Two other reasons: heat and alcohol. One of the most dangerous places created was the UK pub beer garden. In theory it sounds great: sit outside in the sun, drinking a cold one. In practice it is a security nightmare, mixing alcohol, and heat, two things that are known to independently increase the risk of violence, and when combined do so exponentially. If you have people drinking all day, in the sun, then there’s a good chance that they will experience a lowering of tolerance and patience for other people and an increase in irritability. Put together a large group of people in this state, and the chances for negative social interactions that lead to aggression and violence increase significantly. I used to see this firsthand when working pub and bar security e.g., first hot weekend in Summer, people would get drunk during the day in the Sun, and then come into the city/town bars in the evening, already on a short fuse and ready to take offense. Throw in access to firearms, and the ability to easily act violently, and there are going to be poor – and fatal – decisions made. Whilst most people who shoot believe that they are “good”, most aren’t, and shooting drunk, in a crowded space is likely to lead to many people who weren’t involved in the original dispute/argument getting shot – something that appears to largely be the case with those killed and injured this July 4th (2023).

It would be easy but too simplistic to conclude that all of these shootings took place at locations where people with a history of violence gathered. In one of the incidents, it does appear to be gang-related (a drive-by shooting) however in most, the acts of aggression were carried out by those who weren’t affiliated with known offenders. Most violence is social, not predatory, and is the result of negative social interactions. The more potential interactions – the greater number of people – the greater chance of those that lead to acts of aggression and violence. Throw in heat and alcohol and the potential numbers increase again. July 4th may well be a time for celebration but that celebration comes with a cost.