In one of my former roles, I was called on to create security profiles of employees within a company, to predict the likelihood of future criminal acts – the company was losing a lot of stock, and they were trying to identify, the individuals involved to keep a closer eye on them, and eventually catch them. When doing such profiling, one of the most important components I would look at was motive; at first glance the motive may seem simple i.e. to profit from the sale of the stolen goods, but that only tells us part of the story.

Motive consists of two parts: the “what” and the “why”. Unfortunately, the two often get confused and we end up believing the what is the why e.g. we look at the mugger’s motive as being to take our wallet from us, rather than looking at “why” they are taking our wallet. At first glance, this may seem a subtle and irrelevant nuance i.e. why should we care, why they want our wallet/money, and what they’re going to use it for? The “why” though is extremely important, as it tells us a lot about the “who”, and in knowing who it is we are dealing with, we are better equipped to predict their future behaviors, such as whether the mugger is likely to stab/slash/shoot us after we hand over the wallet, or whether they are more likely to disengage etc. There will be those who say they don’t care about the mugger’s motive, because their solution, in every instance, is to physically tackle them. This doesn’t take into account that some muggings will not require a physical response (i.e. handing over the wallet, etc. will see them go), and some will make that response much riskier. There could be two armed muggers present e.g. where the secondary assailant has a firearm, and is just out of your reach. We may like to think that our physical training gives us the superior edge in every situation, however realistically this isn’t always the case, and knowing what to do, and how to act, in those situations we can’t physically control is important for our survival – and understanding motive is key, as it allows us to understand the who.

When we deal with a mugger, it’s fairly clear what they want i.e. our resources. But understanding the why/the motive behind the incident, allows us to understand how our responses might put us at risk. Criminals choose their crimes for a reason. There are reasons why somebody becomes a pickpocket, somebody becomes a burglar, and why somebody becomes a mugger etc. Part of the choice is based on means and opportunities. An individual who is dealing drugs, for a supplier, may want to move up the “food chain” to become a drugs baron, but the opportunities may not be there for them, and they may lack the means to do so e.g. the market may be saturated, with suppliers and dealers, preventing them from even moving up to the next level, and they may lack the confidence, charisma, intellect and other means to be anything more than a “runner” for other dealers. A burglar, may choose their crime, because they lack the confidence to engage in a confrontational crime, such as mugging, and wouldn’t be able to cope as a pickpocket if they were caught “dipping” into somebody’s bags etc. The criminal professions that individuals select, can tell us a lot about who they are, and how they’re likely to act in certain situations e.g. a burglar, is more likely to run when discovered than try to physically engage with us etc.

In confrontational crimes, predatory individuals are motivated by anger, power and control, along with the need to acquire money – usually to support a drug habit (that is part of their motive). Their necessity to have immediate cash, rather than possessions that they would need to take time to sell, lets us know of their “urgency” in committing their crimes, and also their position on the criminal ladder; they are at the bottom, and probably not tapped into any criminal fraternity, even lacking the connection to someone who could fence the goods for them. They are socially isolated by both legitimate and illegitimate communities. When we add to their profile, that they probably, like most predators have a high sense of self-worth, but a history of what they see as under-achievement, due not to their own faults, but because of the breaks that society didn’t afford them. All of these things combine to produce an individual, who is angry, and combative against everybody else. Part of their motive, is to get back at the world. Taking your wallet, doesn’t just equip them with the necessary funds to get their next fix, it also teaches society a lesson, and more importantly it is them, who is giving the lesson. This gives them both a sense of power, and a period of control; both of which are lacking when they aren’t engaged in robbing people. The act of mugging someone is more significant to the mugger, than just taking a wallet or purse. This is one of the reasons that full compliance with a demand for your money – rather than throwing the wallet, away from you, on the floor, etc. – is usually your best survival option.

The same action or behavior, by the same person, over a period of time, can have a different motive behind it. When an ex-intimate partner, immediately after a break-up starts sending flowers, texting, making phone calls etc., their motive might be to try and re-start the relationship by showing that they are invested in it, and care about it. After 3 to 6 months, they may still be engaging in these activities as part of a stalking campaign. This time, the reason behind the emails, phone calls, and gifts is to cause their ex-partner anxiety, and get them to fear for their safety. Their actions are to demonstrate their power, and control over the individual they are victimizing. Once we understand the change in motive, we are better able to predict how they are likely to act and behave next. Understanding motive, allows us to understand the individual better, and through this understanding, we are better able to predict whether they are going to become violent at some point – and implement preventative processes and procedures.

There are other predators, who don’t fully understand the “what” and the “why” of their actions. The majority of kidnappings and hostage takings in the U.S. aren’t committed by terrorists/criminals who are looking for political or financial gains, but by ex-partners who have been denied visitation rights to their children – often for the safety of the kids. Out of frustration, and unable to see any alternative means to gain access, they kidnap their children (often with their ex-partner) and take them somewhere. When the Hostage Negotiation Team, arrive and start talking with them, they find out that they don’t actually have a list of demands, and they don’t know what it is that they’re trying to achieve. They understand that living on the “run” with their old family as hostages, isn’t a sustainable option, but they lack an alternative. The underlying motives, of frustration, anger, disrespect and injustice cause them to engage in a kidnapping, but they have no idea what their actions are actually going to achieve. Predators with no goals, are often volatile and confused individuals, who will act in unpredictable ways.

When we are dealing with predators, such as muggers, stalkers or hostage takers, it is important that we understand the “what” and the “why” of their motives. This understanding allows us to better predict their future behaviors and actions and get an idea of “who” it is that we’re actually dealing with. When we put this situational component together with others, such as relationship and location, we are quickly able to build a predictive profile of the individual we are dealing with.